How Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s erratic manoeuvres at grabbing power are turning against him

By Dr. Dennis Daniel Ssemugenyi

In the realm of political theatre, few actors captivate an audience quite like Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s very own Twitter General in Chief. If Machiavelli were alive today, one suspects he might pull Kainerugaba aside, lean in conspiratorially, and advise him that sometimes less is indeed more—especially when it comes to brash attempts at power.

Kainerugaba’s erratic manoeuvres resemble a high-stakes game of chess, where instead of quiet strategy, he opts for flamboyant moves that bewilder not only his opponents but also, quite spectacularly, his own supporters. One minute he’s a charming son of the president, and the next, he’s the exasperated sprinter leaping over hurdles in a race only he seems to believe he’s winning.

Consider, for instance, the barrage of tweets that heralded his supposed candidacy for the presidency. One might liken it to a toddler yelling ‘Look at me!’ while standing on a dining room table—adorably misguided yet entirely lacking in strategic finesse. The waves of social media hype created an illusion of invincibility; however, the more he flaunted his intentions, the more the fractured pieces of his ambition began to resemble a house of cards on an overly boisterous breeze.

The machinery of Ugandan politics is not particularly fond of such exuberance. Political rivals, keen to play the long game, have stood back with popcorn in hand, watching intently as Kainerugaba unwittingly embodies every cautionary tale ever told in the annals of power. Rather akin to the classic story of Icarus, he is now soaring close to the sun—wings constructed not of wax, but rather, of tweets and bravado.

Kainerugaba’s erratic moves have not only empowered his opponents but have sparked doubt among those initially willing to chant his name like enthusiastic fans at a football match. The image of an ambitious heir apparent has started to melt like ice cream under the sweltering glare of scrutiny. Concerns concerning nepotism can feel like a suffocating blanket wrapped tightly around any chances he might have had left. Uganda’s populace is not devoid of scrutiny and while you can ignore the whispers, the echo of public sentiment is another beast entirely.

Moreover, his frequent public ruminations on the state of the nation (read: backseat driving) come across less like statesmanship and more akin to a soap opera character dropping hints of betrayal. One must wonder whether he perceives his path to power as a well-trodden highway, while the rest of the country sees it as a perilous, potholed backroad, replete with sharp turns and looming obstacles. Maximal ambition, it appears, can often lead to minimal foresight—a lesson Kainerugaba may yet learn the hard way.

As the plot thickens, whispers of a coup d’état haunt the hallways—both real and imagined. The ensuing atmosphere of suspense serves to keep Kainerugaba under constant vigilance; suspicion brews like a storm-cloud overhead, making telling allies from adversaries like attempting to separate the chaff from the wheat in a gusty field. Here lies the delicious irony: as he attempts to seize control, control itself seems to slip through his fingers like grains of sand—a fact keen observers are relishing.

Perhaps Muhoozi would do well to take a page from the substantial library of political wisdom that abounds around him. In a landscape as intricate as Uganda’s, it might be best to temper bravado with a dash of humility. After all, one does not build castles in the air without attending to the foundations—which, at present, seem as sturdy as a house of cards.

As this chapter closes, many a Ugandan remains on the edge of their seat, popcorn in hand, waiting to see whether Kainerugaba will finally embrace the elegance of subtlety—or whether he will double down on the tempestuous spectacle that has bewildered observers far and wide.