Uganda’s economy set to hit 10.4% growth once oil production starts — finance minister Musasizi
According to the ministry’s projections, the size of Uganda’s economy will expand to USD 68.4 billion (Shs 251.4 trillion) by June 2026, equivalent to USD 194.2 billion in purchasing power parity terms. The economy is expected to further grow to USD 80.8 billion (Shs 291.4 trillion) in FY 2026/27.
Uganda’s economy is projected to register stronger growth in the coming financial years, driven by the anticipated start of commercial oil production, the government has said.
While appearing before Parliament’s Budget Committee this week, Minister of State for General Duties, Henry Musasizi, said economic growth is expected to rise to 7 percent in FY 2025/26, up from 6.3 percent projected for FY 2024/25.
Musasizi, who was accompanied by a technical team from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, noted that the onset of oil production later this year will mark a turning point for the economy, pushing growth into double-digit territory.
“We expect a significant boost once oil production begins, with GDP projected to grow by 10.4 percent in FY 2026/27,” he told the committee.
According to the ministry’s projections, the size of Uganda’s economy will expand to USD 68.4 billion (Shs 251.4 trillion) by June 2026, equivalent to USD 194.2 billion in purchasing power parity terms. The economy is expected to further grow to USD 80.8 billion (Shs 291.4 trillion) in FY 2026/27.
The growth outlook is underpinned by investments in the oil and gas sector, infrastructure development, and improved performance in key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Musasizi also revealed that GDP per capita is projected to increase to USD 1,399 (about Shs 5.03 million) in the current financial year, reflecting gradual improvements in household incomes.
However, analysts have previously cautioned that sustaining high growth will depend on effective management of oil revenues, continued fiscal discipline, and investments in human capital to ensure broad-based economic benefits.
The projections come at a time when the government is finalising its budget strategy for the upcoming financial year, with a strong focus on growth, industrialisation, and wealth creation.
Oil production was anticipated to start this year but delayed construction on the crude export pipeline and other oil field infrastructure will see this target unmet.
