Uganda’s coffee exports rise on strong demand, but prices soften amid global supply surge

Uganda’s coffee sector posted a mixed performance in March 2026, with export volumes rising on the back of strong global demand, but earnings declining as international prices eased due to improved supply prospects.

According to the latest monthly report, Uganda exported 671,152 60-kg bags of coffee worth US$173.37 million (UGX 646.75 billion) during the month, reflecting a 3.19% increase in volume but a 13.56% drop in value compared to March 2025.

Demand remains firm despite price pressure

Global demand for coffee remains robust, underpinned by rising consumption, particularly in Europe and emerging markets. Uganda’s coffee continued to find strong markets, with Europe accounting for 62% of exports, followed by Africa at 21% and Asia at 12%.

Italy retained its position as Uganda’s largest buyer, taking 32.17% of total exports, followed by Sudan, Germany, India and Morocco.

The sustained demand aligns with global consumption trends, which are projected to reach a record 173.9 million bags in the 2025/26 coffee year, even as world production rises to 178.8 million bags.

Prices decline as global supply improves

Despite strong demand, prices weakened during the month, reflecting improved global supply outlooks from major producers such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Ethiopia.

Uganda’s average export price fell to US$4.31 per kilogram, down from US$4.63 in February 2026 and US$5.14 in March 2025.

Robusta, which dominates Uganda’s exports, fetched an average of US$3.94 per kilogram, while Arabica earned a higher US$6.32 per kilogram, though both recorded declines from the previous month.

At the domestic level, farm-gate prices also softened. Robusta kiboko averaged UGX 5,650 per kilogram, while FAQ traded at UGX 12,000. Arabica parchment averaged UGX 15,000, and Drugar stood at UGX 14,500 per kilogram.

Volume growth driven by higher production

The increase in export volumes was largely attributed to improved harvests across key growing regions. Robusta exports rose 7.04% in volume, although their value declined sharply by 20.8%, highlighting the impact of falling prices.

Arabica exports, on the other hand, declined by 13.77% in volume and 10.49% in value, reflecting lower shipments during the period.

Strong annual performance

On a broader scale, Uganda’s coffee sector continues to show strong growth momentum.

For the 12 months from April 2025 to March 2026, exports reached 8.8 million bags valued at US$2.4 billion (UGX 8.8 trillion), up from 6.9 million bags worth US$1.8 billion in the previous year.

This represents a 28% increase in volume and a 36% rise in value, underscoring the sector’s resilience and expanding global footprint.

Market structure and competition

The export market remains relatively concentrated, with the top 10 exporters controlling 70% of shipments, led by Ugacof with a 12.66% market share.

Meanwhile, international buyers such as Sucafina, Olam International and Louis Dreyfus continue to dominate procurement, reflecting Uganda’s integration into global commodity trading networks.

Outlook

Uganda’s coffee exports are projected to rise further to about 680,000 bags in April 2026, supported by peak harvests in Greater Masaka and the south-western regions.

However, price trends will remain closely tied to global supply dynamics. While tightening global stocks could provide some support, increased production from major exporters is expected to keep prices under pressure in the short term.

Bottom line: Uganda’s coffee sector is benefiting from strong global demand and rising production, but declining prices are squeezing export earnings—highlighting the need for value addition and quality improvement to sustain income growth.