Uganda’s transport sector sends mixed signals as air and rail traffic slump while motorcycle registrations surge

Uganda’s transport network delivered a quarter of contrasts between January and March 2026, as new figures released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) show steady but modest gains in road infrastructure sitting alongside a sharp contraction in air travel, softer water and rail traffic, and an unmistakable boom in motorcycle registrations that is quietly redrawing the country’s vehicle fleet.

The Transport and Communication Statistics Report for the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, compiled by UBOS from administrative records supplied by Higher Local Governments, district engineering departments, and various ministries, departments and agencies, paints a picture of an economy still leaning heavily on road and motorcycle mobility even as premium travel, air passengers and airfreight in particular, cools.

ROAD NETWORK: PAVING GAINS GROUND, BUT MARRAM STILL DOMINATES

Uganda’s national road network stood at 21,200.0 kilometres as of June 2025, unchanged in total length from the previous year but shifting gradually in composition.

Paved roads inched up by 0.1 percent, from 6,199.0 kilometres in June 2024 to 6,206.6 kilometres a year later, while the unpaved network contracted by a corresponding 0.1 percent, from 15,001.0 kilometres to 14,993.4 kilometres.

The pace of paving has slowed markedly. Uganda added paved roads at rates of 3.6 percent, 3.9 percent and 5.5 percent in the three years to 2022/23, but growth fell to just 1.1 percent in 2023/24 and further still to 0.1 percent in 2024/25, suggesting road agencies are increasingly focused on rehabilitating existing tarmac rather than laying new stretches.

The condition data reinforces that impression. Of the 6,199 kilometres of paved road assessed in 2023/24, 62.5 percent (3,874 kilometres) were rated in good condition, 31.7 percent (1,965 kilometres) fair, and 5.8 percent (360 kilometres) poor.

That marks a partial recovery from 2022/23, when only 59.8 percent of paved roads were in good condition, though it remains well below the 80 percent-plus good-condition ratings recorded in 2020/21 and 2021/22.

Unpaved roads tell a starker story. Only 20 percent of the 15,001 kilometres assessed in 2023/24 were in good condition, down sharply from 38.4 percent in 2020/21.

Roads in poor condition more than tripled over the same window, from 2,345 kilometres to 5,700.4 kilometres, now accounting for 38 percent of the entire unpaved network, compared with just 18.3 percent five years ago.

With three-quarters of Uganda’s road network still unpaved, the deterioration of marram roads remains one of the more pressing infrastructure challenges facing rural connectivity and agricultural trade.

Motorcycle Boom Drives Vehicle Registrations Higher

Newly registered private vehicles, cars, tricycles and motorcycles combined, rose 3.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, from 63,884 in the second quarter of 2025/26 to 66,191 in the third quarter, according to Uganda Revenue Authority data compiled in the report.

The growth was driven entirely by two-and three-wheelers. Motorcycle registrations climbed 9.2 percent, from 46,235 to 50,489, while tricycle registrations rose 8.0 percent, from 2,929 to 3,162.

New car registrations moved in the opposite direction, falling 14.8 percent from 14,721 to 12,540, continuing a volatile run that has seen car registrations swing wildly quarter to quarter over the past two years, from a high of 31,982 in the first quarter of 2024/25 to lows below 11,000 just months later.

Motorcycles now dominate Uganda’s newly registered fleet by a wide margin, accounting for more than three-quarters of all new registrations in the quarter, a trend consistent with the continued expansion of boda boda transport and last-mile delivery services across the country’s urban centres.

AIR TRANSPORT: PASSENGER AND CARGO VOLUMES FALL SHARPLY

Entebbe International Airport recorded a marked slowdown in the third quarter, with total passenger traffic falling 23.6 percent to 513,419 movements, down from 672,112 in the previous quarter and a steeper decline than the 3.8 percent drop registered in Q2.

International passenger numbers, which make up the overwhelming majority of traffic through the airport, fell 23.8 percent to 505,791, while domestic passengers dropped 5.5 percent to 7,628.

Aircraft movements over Uganda’s airspace also eased, falling 4.7 percent to 14,843 in the quarter, from 15,577 in Q2, according to Civil Aviation Authority figures cited in the report.

Commercial aircraft landings declined 7.4 percent to 8,420, while overflights slipped nearly one percent to 6,423.

Air cargo volumes contracted even more sharply than passenger traffic, falling 36.5 percent to 11,980 tonnes in Q3, from 18,881 tonnes in the prior quarter.

Both legs of the cargo trade weakened: cargo loaded for export fell 38.3 percent to 7,490 tonnes, while cargo offloaded on arrival dropped 33.4 percent to 4,490 tonnes.

Mail volumes followed the same trajectory, declining 31.4 percent to 81 tonnes, driven by a 50 percent collapse in mail loaded for dispatch.

The synchronized decline across passengers, cargo and mail marks one of the steepest quarterly pullbacks in air transport activity captured in the report’s recent data series, though the underlying causes, whether seasonal, route-specific or linked to broader travel demand, are not detailed in the UBOS release.

WATER TRANSPORT: FERRY TRAFFIC EASES ACROSS ALL INDICATORS

Uganda’s ferry network, which UBOS tracks across thirteen crossing points on the country’s major lakes and rivers, recorded broad-based softening in the third quarter.

The number of ferry trips fell 3.1 percent to 7,084, down from 7,307 in Q2, while passenger numbers dipped a more modest 0.5 percent to 1,661,786.

Cargo hauled by registered ferries declined 2.4 percent to 42,083.2 tonnes, and the number of motor vehicles ferried across water bodies fell 2.9 percent to 95,190.

Motorcycle crossings were essentially flat, edging up 0.1 percent to 199,695, underscoring how thoroughly two-wheelers have penetrated even Uganda’s water-crossing transport corridors, now nearly matching motor vehicle volumes at several ferry points.

The declines follow a stronger second quarter, in which passenger traffic had jumped 16.7 percent, suggesting the pullback may reflect normal seasonal variation in ferry demand rather than a structural shift.

RAILWAY TRANSPORT: HAULAGE DIPS AS PASSENGER NUMBERS FALL SHARPLY

Uganda Railways Corporation hauled 66,483.5 metric tonnes of freight in the third quarter, a 2.5 percent decline from the 68,198.9 tonnes hauled in Q2.

Net tonne-kilometres, a measure that accounts for both weight and distance, fell far more steeply, down 19.1 percent to 13,561.19 thousand net tonne-kilometres, from 16,763.24 thousand in the previous quarter.

Rail passenger numbers fell 27.0 percent, from 110,441 in Q2 to 80,614 in Q3, extending a pattern of sharp quarter-on-quarter swings that has characterised passenger rail demand over the past two years.

Operational efficiency indicators were mixed. The wagon transit time between Malaba and Kampala improved to 1.9 days, from 2.0 days in Q2, while overall wagon turnaround time, the full Malaba-Kampala-Malaba cycle, nearly halved to 6.7 days, down 48.7 percent, which the report attributes to a change in the freight route’s starting point from Mombasa to Malaba.

Locomotive productivity per kilometre per day rose sharply to 91.9 percent, from just 5.3 percent in Q2, while wagon productivity collapsed by 84.8 percent over the same period.

Safety indicators moved in the wrong direction. Reported rail accidents doubled, from four incidents in Q2 to eight in Q3, though the report notes zero fatalities were recorded in the quarter, compared with two fatalities logged in the first quarter of 2025/26.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Taken together, the UBOS figures point to a transport sector where road-based and two-wheeler mobility continue to expand even as premium and long-haul segments, air travel, air cargo and rail freight, cool from the highs registered earlier in the financial year.

With roughly seven in ten kilometres of Uganda’s national road network still unpaved, and unpaved-road conditions deteriorating year on year, the durability of rural and last-mile connectivity remains a key variable for the agricultural and trade sectors that depend on it.

The next quarterly release, covering April to June 2026, will show whether the sharp declines recorded in air and rail traffic during Q3 were a temporary dip or the start of a longer slowdown.